Australia Ai Group Industry Index

Info

History

Chart

Impact:

Medium

Latest Release:

Surprise:

AUD-4.4

AUD

Actual:

-22.2

Forecast: -17.8

Previous/Revision:

-17.6

Period: Apr 2025

Next Release:

Forecast: -28

Period: May 2025

What Does It Measure?

The Australia Ai Group Industry Index is a national measure that tracks the performance of various industry sectors within the Australian economy, focusing on production, new orders, employment, supplier deliveries, and finished stock levels. The index is constructed as a diffusion index where a reading above 50 indicates expansion in the industry, while a reading below 50 signals contraction.

Frequency

This index is released monthly, typically within the first half of the month, providing timely insights with its preliminary figures, which are not subject to subsequent revisions.

Why Do Traders Care?

Traders pay close attention to this index as it provides a snapshot of industry health, with expansions indicating potential bullish trends for the Australian dollar and equities, while contractions can signal bearish trends. Given its timeliness, it acts as an important indicator for economic forecasts and assists in shaping expectations for both industrial performance and broader economic conditions.

What Is It Derived From?

The index is derived from a survey of industry participants, such as managers and executives, regarding various business conditions. Data collected through surveys are compiled into a diffusion index format, which is a commonly used methodology to gauge changes in economic activity across sectors.

Description

The index consists of both a preliminary and a final version; however, the preliminary data is most anticipated by markets due to its timely release, though it may be less accurate and subject to potential revisions. The final data reflects more comprehensive information but tends to have a lesser impact on market sentiment compared to the preliminary release. This release primarily focuses on month-over-month (MoM) changes, which help capture short-term shifts in industry dynamics, thus serving as a proactive economic signal.

Additional Notes

The Ai Group Industry Index serves as a leading economic indicator since it helps forecast future economic activity based on changes in production and new orders. It complements other regional and national economic reports, enhancing its value as a tool for assessing broader economic trends and conditions within Australia.

Bullish or Bearish for Currency and Stocks

Higher than expected: Bullish for Australia Dollar, Bullish for Stocks. Lower than expected: Bearish for Australia Dollar, Bearish for Stocks.

Legend

High Potential Impact
This event has a strong potential to move markets significantly. If the ‘Actual’ value differs enough from the forecast or if the ‘Previous’ value is significantly revised, it signals new information that markets may rapidly adjust to.

Medium Potential Impact
This event may cause moderate market movement, especially if the ‘Actual’ deviates from the forecast or there’s a notable revision to the ‘Previous’ value.

Medium Potential Impact
This event is unlikely to affect market pricing unless there’s an unexpected surprise or a major revision to prior data.

Surprise - Currency May Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could strengthen the currency.

Surprise - Currency May Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' on a medium or high impact event and historically could weaken the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Strengthen
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely strengthen the currency.

Big Surprise - Currency More Likely To Weaken
'Actual' deviated from 'Forecast' more than 75% of historical deviations on a medium or high impact event and may likely weaken the currency.

Green Number	Better than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Red Number	Worse than forecast for the currency (or previous revise better)
Hawkish	Supports higher interest rates to fight inflation, strengthening the currency but weighing on stocks.
Dovish	Favors lower rates to boost growth, weakening the currency but lifting stocks.

Date	Actual	Forecast	Previous	Surprise
Apr 01, 2025	-22.2	-17.8	-17.6	-4.4
Mar 04, 2025	-17.6	-15	-17.4	-2.6
Feb 04, 2025	-17.4	-15	-10.8	-2.4
Dec 03, 2024	-10.8	-21.3	-28.8	10.5
Nov 05, 2024	-28.8	-13	-18.6	-15.8
Oct 01, 2024	-18.6	-10	-23.5	-8.6
Sep 03, 2024	-23.5	-19.2	-20.7	-4.3
Aug 06, 2024	-20.7	-22	-25.6	1.3
Jul 02, 2024	-25.6	-25	-40.3	-0.6
Jun 04, 2024	-40.3	-10	-8.9	-30.3
Apr 30, 2024	-8.9	-4	-5.3	-4.9
Apr 02, 2024	-5.3	-17	-14.9	11.7
Mar 05, 2024	-14.9	-22	-27.3	7.1
Feb 06, 2024	-27.3	-26	-22.4	-1.3
Dec 05, 2023	-22.4	-8	-9.9	-14.4
Oct 31, 2023	-9.9	-6	-3.5	-3.9
Oct 03, 2023	-3.5	-13	-11.6	9.5
Sep 06, 2023	-11.6	-16	-14.7	4.4
Aug 01, 2023	-14.7	-16	-11.9	1.3
Jul 04, 2023	-11.9	-14	-10.9	2.1
Jun 06, 2023	-10.9	-26	-20.1	15.1
May 02, 2023	20.1	-7	-6.1	27.1
Apr 04, 2023	-6.1	2	-1.7	-8.1
Feb 28, 2023	-1.8	-10	-11.6	8.2
Feb 07, 2023	-11.6		-1.1